Looking at the game of the great power from the depreciation of the renminbi, is the global financial crisis coming?

Elbert

December 3, 2022 at 1:15 am

Why does the RMB continue to depreciate?
Let's review the trend of the RMB from the date when the RMB plummeted on August 11, 2015, until the beginning of December 2016.
The dollars against the RMB exchange rate, from the lowest 6.2080 to the highest 6.9330, a maximum increase of 11.68%. No wonder why many people go to the bank to exchange the US dollar with a lot of cash, 11.68%a year can definitely win most of the investment varieties.
FIG. 1: Daily map of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate (July 2015-December 2016)

The event review after the plunge of the RMB exchange rate:
August 11, 2015 The People's Bank of China decided to improve the intermediate price quotation mechanism of the RMB against the US dollar. In the morning, the central bank announced that the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.2298, a depreciation of 1136 points compared with the previous trading day, and the decrease was 1.9%, which was the largest single -day decline in history.
On August 12, 2015, according to Reuters, the Central Bank of China conducted window guidance on individual foreign banks and suspended its cross -border and participating in domestic foreign exchange business until the end of March 16.
On September 30, 2015, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a document that starting from January 1, 2016, each card must not exceed 100,000 yuan per year.
On December 23, 2015, the People's Bank of China announced the extension of foreign exchange transactions. At the same time, further introduce qualified overseas entities to participate in the trading varieties of all listed on the inter -bank foreign exchange market.
On January 4, 2016, the A -share triggered melting mechanism, the plunge in China's stock market triggered the global market to fall. The offshore RMB plummeted over 600 points within the day. The central bank accidentally lowered the middle price of the RMB, and the market believed that the central bank once again became the main source of exchange rate risk.
mainly lies in the initiative of the central bank
It's review of the above incidents. We can see that from August last year to January this year, the depreciation of the RMB was mainly caused by the central bank's initiative adjustment. In the words of the central bank, "In view of the continuous surplus of my country's cargo trade, the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB is relatively strong than the global currency performance, and it must be separated from market expectations. Therefore, according to market development needs, the RMB should be further improved to further improve the RMB Intermediate price quotation ".
The is more popular because my country has "stared at the US dollar" for a long time, which has led to the appreciation of the effective exchange rate over the past few years. It needs to be adjusted and corrected. It can be seen from the figure below that the RMB exchange rate has increased by 32%in the past ten years, and the appreciation trend of the renminbi began to break in 2014.
FIG. 2: The US dollar against the RMB exchange rate month line (November 2005-December 2016)

Why do central banks actively adjust the RMB exchange rate?
Perobed by immediately, the depreciation of the renminbi is favorable for the formation of my country's export trade. However, from the current situation, the contribution of trade to my country's GDP is near zero, so it has not contributed much to my country's GDP.
The depreciation of the renminbi has also aggravated the main body of overseas liabilities. For multinational companies, its operating profit in China is also damaged due to the depreciation of the renminbi. Some experts said that the depreciation of the renminbi cannot be the main driving force for the economy, and there is no way to solve the problem of overcapacity such as domestic steel and other domestic steel.
, then everyone will have questions, why should the central bank make initiative to adjust? This will start from the 811 exchange reform:
On August 11, 2015, the Central Bank of China announced the adjustment of the RMB intermediate price quotation mechanism for the US dollar exchange rate, and made the market for the market for foreign exchange markets in the last Japanese bank. Provide an intermediate price quotation.
The exchange reform is mainly:
The two -way floating elasticity is significantly enhanced, no longer appreciates the value;
will not keep an eye on the US dollar, and gradually turn to reference for a basket of currencies; The regularity, transparency, and marketization level formed have been significantly improved;
This pressure of cross -border capital outflow gradually relieved.
We we can see a central bank's attitude, that is, under the premise of the stability of the Chinese financial market and the healthy development of my country's foreign exchange market, by improving the intermediate price quotation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate of the US dollar, To better play the regulating role of exchange rates on foreign exchange supply and demand.
of course, there are many factors that affect the exchange rate of the RMB, we summarize the main reasons for depreciation:
The central bank's initiative adjustment;
The adjustment pressure brought by long -term appreciation;
my country's economy release The depreciation pressure brought by the slowdown;
2 The US dollar interest rate hike window is approaching
On December 14, 2016, the Fed will announce interest rate decisions and issued a statement. According to Bloomberg's latest data, the probability of interest rate hikes in December was 84%. The number of non -agricultural employment in the United States announced earlier this month was basically in line with expectations, indicating that the US economy is still strong. The market is generally expected to raise interest rates a few percentage, and the market is waiting for boots to land.
In analysts said that the US dollar index has continued to rise in the near future. If the Federal Reserve implemented interest rate hikes at the market expectations, the US dollar will weaken after the "boots" landing.
FIG. 3: 5 times of interest rate hikes at the Fed

What is the impact of US dollar rate hikes?
A US economy: The real economy will be tested in the short term, attracting international capital to the United States, and the US dollar will strengthen.
Global economy: It is negatively impact on developed countries such as Europe, Japan; for emerging markets, the impact may be different from different countries. Latin America and Eastern Europe, which are not reasonable and weak in economic structure and weak growth foundation, may have a large impact.
If commodity market: produce negative effects. The vast majority of commodities are priced in the US dollar. Under the circumstances where the US dollar index rises and the commodity currency has been depreciating, the prices of commodities are suppressed, and prices of gold and crude oil are suppressed.
a stock market: The impact of the US dollar rate hike on the global market is negative, and it often has short -term pressure on A shares. But from a longer period of time, the trend of A shares depends on domestic factors.
3 The global financial crisis is coming soon?
Ren Zhengfei: The financial crisis may be coming.
Recently, Ren Zhengfei predicts the current economic situation when speaking in Huawei: It is believed that the financial crisis may be coming. It is emphasized that Huawei must reduce long -term inventory and clear -term over -long -term arrears to resist the various uncertain risks brought by the financial crisis.
Ren Zhengfei's judgment on the financial crisis really frightened the people who eat melon. Everyone can't help thinking, why is the financial crisis come again?
The financial market variables in the US Presidential transfer period
have passed eight years since the global financial crisis in 2008. Looking back at 2016, the global financial market has continued, and the black swan incidents have emerged endlessly. It seems to be an accidental overlap, which is actually the inevitable result of the continuous expansion of various major risks.
The overlapping presidents of the United States are often accompanied by the time of the outbreak of the financial crisis. For example, Bush came to power in 2000 to deal with 911 and the Internet bubble rupture, and Obama came to the stage to deal with the subprime crisis in 2008.
In look at the financial market in 2017, the global economic growth has slowed down, global fiscal risks remain high, the debt pressure is heavy, and the risks of long -term currency loose asset bubbles and inflation expectations will be disturbed. The financial market is difficult to optimistic.
The financial crisis burst?
The analysis said that the strong dollar is rare in the history of the United States. The US dollar index has broken three times in the past 30 years. Large economy.
Figure 4: In the nearly thirty years of the US dollar index, the K -line trend chart

The three global crisis brought by the strong dollar:
1980, the Ratin America's economy has risen. Interest, a strong US dollar strategy was implemented, and the Latin American debt crisis occurred. Argentina and Brazil and other South American countries have been stunned, and a term of economics was born called "secondary income trap". After that, as the dollar was too expensive, the oil fell below 10 US dollars, and the third oil crisis broke out. The continuous oil price plummeted, and even the Soviet economy collapsed and fell into disintegration.
In 1990, the Japanese property market bubble reached its peak. The yen that had appreciated, under the hedging of the strong dollar, began to depreciate, and the Japanese government was forced to follow the interest rate hike. After that, the big bubble of the Japanese property market broke down, and the dilemma of the aging of the population was superimposed, which caused the entire Japanese economy to lose its cyclical fluctuations and long -term sluggish.
-from 1997 to 2000, the United States raised interest rates continuously, piercing the Asian economic bubble, the economic accumulation of the four small dragons and four small tigers in Asia, washed away by the hedge fund of Soros. Until now these countries and regions have no Reappear the glory of the day. After that, 6.5%of the high interest rates also caused problems in the United States itself. The huge Internet bubble began to break, and the strong US dollar pierced the US economic illusion. In addition, the "September 11" incident in 2001, the US economy fell into a downturn.
The global economic crisis is really coming?
In previous data statistics, and various cases of various events, we seem to have found a firm reason for the coming of the financial crisis.
The reason for the birth of the financial crisis, we can summarize it into two major aspects, one is the rupture of the foam, and there is a problem in the inner.
1. First of all, the famous financial crisis in history is accompanied by a huge bubble rupture.
, such as the Dutch Tulip crisis in 1637, the British South China Sea Bubble Incident in 1720, the Internet bubble in 2000, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, all because of speculative behavior, which caused the market to be seriously deviated from its value, and finally belonged to the crushing.
The current financial markets have no obvious bubbles after the "baptism" in the second half of last year and early this year, and my country's real estate overheating is also effective under the recent policies. Therefore The basics.
2, followed by the endogenous cause of the financial crisis, and the US economy is still better in the short term.
The slower economic growth rate in my country is at the stage of economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading and transformation. In the past two years, preliminary results have been achieved. With the implementation of the reform of state -owned enterprises, the “Belt and Road” and supply -side reforms, my country's economic structure and financial system will be more stable.
It the initiative adjustment of the RMB exchange rate also hedge the unstable factor that the US dollar appreciation may bring to a certain extent. As the marketization of the renminbi is getting higher and higher, the adjustment role of the exchange rate on foreign exchange supply and demand also also More and more obvious.
Min country has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and has sufficient capabilities to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Therefore, the foundation of the international financial crisis does not exist, so we think that changing a statement will be more suitable, that is, the global economy will be in a narrowing channel in the future. The expected increase makes the space of monetary policy in various countries very narrow, and the policies of different countries will be different according to their own development.
4 What is Trump planning?
The a few days ago, Trump sent two Twitter and proposed three "questions" to China.

The intentions are:
The depreciation of its own currency (making it more difficult for Chinese companies to compete with it), and significantly levy the import tariffs on my country's commodity (we did not cure their people's way of their own ways. ), Still building military facilities in the South China Sea, did they do so and asked our opinions? Obviously not!
Is about the depreciation of the renminbi and the trade tax rate, Trump has repeatedly expressed his statement, and his attitude is still very aggressive. The market generally believes that Trump is a businessman, so it may pay more attention to economic interests than Hillary. Below we summarize some of Trump's policy propositions.
Trump's main policy proposition:
The relaxation supervision: During Obama's administration, labor supervision has expanded significantly. In addition, the "Obama Medical Reform" made the health care industry account for too much proportion to the US economy, as high as 17%. Trump's relaxation regulatory policy will promote enterprises to start investment again, and the booster of confidence is obvious.
Caping infrastructure investment: Trump said when he was running with his opponent Hillary, he said that his plan to invest in the reconstruction of US infrastructure was "nearly doubled" than Hillary's proposed $ 275 billion. If it is true, this will become a huge new government stimulus plan.
The tax reduction measures. In the upcoming New Deal, Trump has greatly reduced corporate income tax, reducing the current income tax from 35%to 15%. In addition, Trump is also preparing to abolish US companies in the global competition to be in unfavorable tax claims, reducing the tax rate of multinational companies' overseas income to 8.75%. This will promote a large number of overseas funds to return to the United States and encourage investment Patients expand their investment in the United States.
debt problem. Trump has a lot of bonds in order to engage in infrastructure. He once said in May that "I am the king of debt and I like debt." Previously, Trump promised to use the current low interest rate environment. As a way to rebuild national infrastructure facilities: "It is time to borrow money in the United States now, and we must borrow long -term debt." Economy is the fundamental, political serving the economy, while military is the niece of politics. Trump attaches importance to the economy and cannot ignore the international politics and military games.
In three questions from Trump in Twitter, it is not difficult to see that Trump is actually "grabbing braids" and "speaking conditions." In other words, Trump's ideas are clear and natural. He will use political and military issues to intimidate China to achieve his economic purpose.
What is Trump's asking price?
Stch to prevent the depreciation of the renminbi to reduce the trade deficit between China and the United States. As we all know, the decline in the RMB exchange rate is conducive to my country's export trade, which has expanded the difference between China and the United States.
Trump hopes that the manufacturing industry will return. For example, I hope that Apple products are manufactured in the United States, which will affect the entire industry chain of Apple products. Many small and medium -sized enterprises may also be forced to move to the United States.
The return of US companies to deposit overseas. The main means are tax cuts, of course, including tax checking, both hard and hard. American companies have more than $ 2.5 trillion deposits overseas, and a considerable part of it is in China. The return of these funds to the United States means capital outflow for China.
It hopes that China will reduce the tax rate of American products and the market is more open to the United States.
In conclusion: The dispute between the great power lies in the competition of comprehensive national strength. It is comprehensive competition in economics, politics, military, culture, science and technology, and dynamic games between nations. The United States and China are the world's first and second -largest economies, and there are also benefits in the middle.
is obvious that Trump's recent performance is nothing more than trying to put pressure on our country through politics and military to achieve his economic purpose. In the future, what moves he will exhibit, we will see its changes.

1 thought on “Looking at the game of the great power from the depreciation of the renminbi, is the global financial crisis coming?”

Elbert
December 3, 2022 at 1:15 am

Why does the RMB continue to depreciate?
Let's review the trend of the RMB from the date when the RMB plummeted on August 11, 2015, until the beginning of December 2016.
The dollars against the RMB exchange rate, from the lowest 6.2080 to the highest 6.9330, a maximum increase of 11.68%. No wonder why many people go to the bank to exchange the US dollar with a lot of cash, 11.68%a year can definitely win most of the investment varieties.
FIG. 1: Daily map of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate (July 2015-December 2016)

The event review after the plunge of the RMB exchange rate:
August 11, 2015 The People's Bank of China decided to improve the intermediate price quotation mechanism of the RMB against the US dollar. In the morning, the central bank announced that the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.2298, a depreciation of 1136 points compared with the previous trading day, and the decrease was 1.9%, which was the largest single -day decline in history.
On August 12, 2015, according to Reuters, the Central Bank of China conducted window guidance on individual foreign banks and suspended its cross -border and participating in domestic foreign exchange business until the end of March 16.
On September 30, 2015, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a document that starting from January 1, 2016, each card must not exceed 100,000 yuan per year.
On December 23, 2015, the People's Bank of China announced the extension of foreign exchange transactions. At the same time, further introduce qualified overseas entities to participate in the trading varieties of all listed on the inter -bank foreign exchange market.
On January 4, 2016, the A -share triggered melting mechanism, the plunge in China's stock market triggered the global market to fall. The offshore RMB plummeted over 600 points within the day. The central bank accidentally lowered the middle price of the RMB, and the market believed that the central bank once again became the main source of exchange rate risk.
mainly lies in the initiative of the central bank
It's review of the above incidents. We can see that from August last year to January this year, the depreciation of the RMB was mainly caused by the central bank's initiative adjustment. In the words of the central bank, "In view of the continuous surplus of my country's cargo trade, the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB is relatively strong than the global currency performance, and it must be separated from market expectations. Therefore, according to market development needs, the RMB should be further improved to further improve the RMB Intermediate price quotation ".
The is more popular because my country has "stared at the US dollar" for a long time, which has led to the appreciation of the effective exchange rate over the past few years. It needs to be adjusted and corrected. It can be seen from the figure below that the RMB exchange rate has increased by 32%in the past ten years, and the appreciation trend of the renminbi began to break in 2014.
FIG. 2: The US dollar against the RMB exchange rate month line (November 2005-December 2016)

Why do central banks actively adjust the RMB exchange rate?
Perobed by immediately, the depreciation of the renminbi is favorable for the formation of my country's export trade. However, from the current situation, the contribution of trade to my country's GDP is near zero, so it has not contributed much to my country's GDP.
The depreciation of the renminbi has also aggravated the main body of overseas liabilities. For multinational companies, its operating profit in China is also damaged due to the depreciation of the renminbi. Some experts said that the depreciation of the renminbi cannot be the main driving force for the economy, and there is no way to solve the problem of overcapacity such as domestic steel and other domestic steel.
, then everyone will have questions, why should the central bank make initiative to adjust? This will start from the 811 exchange reform:
On August 11, 2015, the Central Bank of China announced the adjustment of the RMB intermediate price quotation mechanism for the US dollar exchange rate, and made the market for the market for foreign exchange markets in the last Japanese bank. Provide an intermediate price quotation.
The exchange reform is mainly:
The two -way floating elasticity is significantly enhanced, no longer appreciates the value;
will not keep an eye on the US dollar, and gradually turn to reference for a basket of currencies; The regularity, transparency, and marketization level formed have been significantly improved;
This pressure of cross -border capital outflow gradually relieved.
We we can see a central bank's attitude, that is, under the premise of the stability of the Chinese financial market and the healthy development of my country's foreign exchange market, by improving the intermediate price quotation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate of the US dollar, To better play the regulating role of exchange rates on foreign exchange supply and demand.
of course, there are many factors that affect the exchange rate of the RMB, we summarize the main reasons for depreciation:
The central bank's initiative adjustment;
The adjustment pressure brought by long -term appreciation;
my country's economy release The depreciation pressure brought by the slowdown;
2 The US dollar interest rate hike window is approaching
On December 14, 2016, the Fed will announce interest rate decisions and issued a statement. According to Bloomberg's latest data, the probability of interest rate hikes in December was 84%. The number of non -agricultural employment in the United States announced earlier this month was basically in line with expectations, indicating that the US economy is still strong. The market is generally expected to raise interest rates a few percentage, and the market is waiting for boots to land.
In analysts said that the US dollar index has continued to rise in the near future. If the Federal Reserve implemented interest rate hikes at the market expectations, the US dollar will weaken after the "boots" landing.
FIG. 3: 5 times of interest rate hikes at the Fed

What is the impact of US dollar rate hikes?
A US economy: The real economy will be tested in the short term, attracting international capital to the United States, and the US dollar will strengthen.
Global economy: It is negatively impact on developed countries such as Europe, Japan; for emerging markets, the impact may be different from different countries. Latin America and Eastern Europe, which are not reasonable and weak in economic structure and weak growth foundation, may have a large impact.
If commodity market: produce negative effects. The vast majority of commodities are priced in the US dollar. Under the circumstances where the US dollar index rises and the commodity currency has been depreciating, the prices of commodities are suppressed, and prices of gold and crude oil are suppressed.
a stock market: The impact of the US dollar rate hike on the global market is negative, and it often has short -term pressure on A shares. But from a longer period of time, the trend of A shares depends on domestic factors.
3 The global financial crisis is coming soon?
Ren Zhengfei: The financial crisis may be coming.
Recently, Ren Zhengfei predicts the current economic situation when speaking in Huawei: It is believed that the financial crisis may be coming. It is emphasized that Huawei must reduce long -term inventory and clear -term over -long -term arrears to resist the various uncertain risks brought by the financial crisis.
Ren Zhengfei's judgment on the financial crisis really frightened the people who eat melon. Everyone can't help thinking, why is the financial crisis come again?
The financial market variables in the US Presidential transfer period
have passed eight years since the global financial crisis in 2008. Looking back at 2016, the global financial market has continued, and the black swan incidents have emerged endlessly. It seems to be an accidental overlap, which is actually the inevitable result of the continuous expansion of various major risks.
The overlapping presidents of the United States are often accompanied by the time of the outbreak of the financial crisis. For example, Bush came to power in 2000 to deal with 911 and the Internet bubble rupture, and Obama came to the stage to deal with the subprime crisis in 2008.
In look at the financial market in 2017, the global economic growth has slowed down, global fiscal risks remain high, the debt pressure is heavy, and the risks of long -term currency loose asset bubbles and inflation expectations will be disturbed. The financial market is difficult to optimistic.
The financial crisis burst?
The analysis said that the strong dollar is rare in the history of the United States. The US dollar index has broken three times in the past 30 years. Large economy.
Figure 4: In the nearly thirty years of the US dollar index, the K -line trend chart

The three global crisis brought by the strong dollar:
1980, the Ratin America's economy has risen. Interest, a strong US dollar strategy was implemented, and the Latin American debt crisis occurred. Argentina and Brazil and other South American countries have been stunned, and a term of economics was born called "secondary income trap". After that, as the dollar was too expensive, the oil fell below 10 US dollars, and the third oil crisis broke out. The continuous oil price plummeted, and even the Soviet economy collapsed and fell into disintegration.
In 1990, the Japanese property market bubble reached its peak. The yen that had appreciated, under the hedging of the strong dollar, began to depreciate, and the Japanese government was forced to follow the interest rate hike. After that, the big bubble of the Japanese property market broke down, and the dilemma of the aging of the population was superimposed, which caused the entire Japanese economy to lose its cyclical fluctuations and long -term sluggish.
-from 1997 to 2000, the United States raised interest rates continuously, piercing the Asian economic bubble, the economic accumulation of the four small dragons and four small tigers in Asia, washed away by the hedge fund of Soros. Until now these countries and regions have no Reappear the glory of the day. After that, 6.5%of the high interest rates also caused problems in the United States itself. The huge Internet bubble began to break, and the strong US dollar pierced the US economic illusion. In addition, the "September 11" incident in 2001, the US economy fell into a downturn.
The global economic crisis is really coming?
In previous data statistics, and various cases of various events, we seem to have found a firm reason for the coming of the financial crisis.
The reason for the birth of the financial crisis, we can summarize it into two major aspects, one is the rupture of the foam, and there is a problem in the inner.
1. First of all, the famous financial crisis in history is accompanied by a huge bubble rupture.
, such as the Dutch Tulip crisis in 1637, the British South China Sea Bubble Incident in 1720, the Internet bubble in 2000, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, all because of speculative behavior, which caused the market to be seriously deviated from its value, and finally belonged to the crushing.
The current financial markets have no obvious bubbles after the "baptism" in the second half of last year and early this year, and my country's real estate overheating is also effective under the recent policies. Therefore The basics.
2, followed by the endogenous cause of the financial crisis, and the US economy is still better in the short term.
The slower economic growth rate in my country is at the stage of economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading and transformation. In the past two years, preliminary results have been achieved. With the implementation of the reform of state -owned enterprises, the “Belt and Road” and supply -side reforms, my country's economic structure and financial system will be more stable.
It the initiative adjustment of the RMB exchange rate also hedge the unstable factor that the US dollar appreciation may bring to a certain extent. As the marketization of the renminbi is getting higher and higher, the adjustment role of the exchange rate on foreign exchange supply and demand also also More and more obvious.
Min country has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and has sufficient capabilities to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Therefore, the foundation of the international financial crisis does not exist, so we think that changing a statement will be more suitable, that is, the global economy will be in a narrowing channel in the future. The expected increase makes the space of monetary policy in various countries very narrow, and the policies of different countries will be different according to their own development.
4 What is Trump planning?
The a few days ago, Trump sent two Twitter and proposed three "questions" to China.

The intentions are:
The depreciation of its own currency (making it more difficult for Chinese companies to compete with it), and significantly levy the import tariffs on my country's commodity (we did not cure their people's way of their own ways. ), Still building military facilities in the South China Sea, did they do so and asked our opinions? Obviously not!
Is about the depreciation of the renminbi and the trade tax rate, Trump has repeatedly expressed his statement, and his attitude is still very aggressive. The market generally believes that Trump is a businessman, so it may pay more attention to economic interests than Hillary. Below we summarize some of Trump's policy propositions.
Trump's main policy proposition:
The relaxation supervision: During Obama's administration, labor supervision has expanded significantly. In addition, the "Obama Medical Reform" made the health care industry account for too much proportion to the US economy, as high as 17%. Trump's relaxation regulatory policy will promote enterprises to start investment again, and the booster of confidence is obvious.
Caping infrastructure investment: Trump said when he was running with his opponent Hillary, he said that his plan to invest in the reconstruction of US infrastructure was "nearly doubled" than Hillary's proposed $ 275 billion. If it is true, this will become a huge new government stimulus plan.
The tax reduction measures. In the upcoming New Deal, Trump has greatly reduced corporate income tax, reducing the current income tax from 35%to 15%. In addition, Trump is also preparing to abolish US companies in the global competition to be in unfavorable tax claims, reducing the tax rate of multinational companies' overseas income to 8.75%. This will promote a large number of overseas funds to return to the United States and encourage investment Patients expand their investment in the United States.
debt problem. Trump has a lot of bonds in order to engage in infrastructure. He once said in May that "I am the king of debt and I like debt." Previously, Trump promised to use the current low interest rate environment. As a way to rebuild national infrastructure facilities: "It is time to borrow money in the United States now, and we must borrow long -term debt." Economy is the fundamental, political serving the economy, while military is the niece of politics. Trump attaches importance to the economy and cannot ignore the international politics and military games.
In three questions from Trump in Twitter, it is not difficult to see that Trump is actually "grabbing braids" and "speaking conditions." In other words, Trump's ideas are clear and natural. He will use political and military issues to intimidate China to achieve his economic purpose.
What is Trump's asking price?
Stch to prevent the depreciation of the renminbi to reduce the trade deficit between China and the United States. As we all know, the decline in the RMB exchange rate is conducive to my country's export trade, which has expanded the difference between China and the United States.
Trump hopes that the manufacturing industry will return. For example, I hope that Apple products are manufactured in the United States, which will affect the entire industry chain of Apple products. Many small and medium -sized enterprises may also be forced to move to the United States.
The return of US companies to deposit overseas. The main means are tax cuts, of course, including tax checking, both hard and hard. American companies have more than $ 2.5 trillion deposits overseas, and a considerable part of it is in China. The return of these funds to the United States means capital outflow for China.
It hopes that China will reduce the tax rate of American products and the market is more open to the United States.
In conclusion: The dispute between the great power lies in the competition of comprehensive national strength. It is comprehensive competition in economics, politics, military, culture, science and technology, and dynamic games between nations. The United States and China are the world's first and second -largest economies, and there are also benefits in the middle.
is obvious that Trump's recent performance is nothing more than trying to put pressure on our country through politics and military to achieve his economic purpose. In the future, what moves he will exhibit, we will see its changes.

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